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Our tipster Jones Knows takes aim at the Premier League action and he’s backing an ugly Manchester United win at Fulham.
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Fulham vs Manchester United, Saturday 12.30pm
Congratulations to those that have been backing the under 2.5 goal in this fixture time slot since the start of last season – I hope the caviar and champagne tastes sweet.
In the last 32 Premier League Saturday 12.30pm kick-offs, 23 of those have produced under 2.5 goals – that’s a 72 per cent strike and subsequently means at the odds offered up you’d be swimming in profit.
And, you should absolutely be backing a low scoring game here, too.
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Despite the deafening noise, it’s hard to argue against Manchester United’s win possibilities here at 11/10 with Sky Bet when you consider their near-perfect record away from home against teams that finished in the bottom 11 places of the Premier League last season or are predicted to be there this season. Since the start of last season, they have taken 34 points from 39 available against such opposition and conceded just six goals in those 13 matches.
As our winning bets proved when latching onto a Manchester United win at Burnley earlier this season, Erik ten Hag isn’t a manager who’d be fun at parties but his teams can win ugly when the pressure is on – and his team will be in that mode for this one.
Image: Erik ten Hag is a master at winning ugly at Man Utd
Ten of those 13 matches also fell under the 2.5 goal line. That makes the price for under 2.5 goals here at 10/11 with Sky Bet look incredibly appealing. If you add a United win into that equation, the price on offer is 4/1. It’s a bet that would have landed in 46 per cent of United’s games against such low ranked opposition last season.
Fulham have the third worst attack in the Premier League based on numbers so far this season as their period of transition without Aleksandar Mitrovic is a bumpy one. Only Sheffield United have created fewer big chances this season, making them a perfect opposition for putting faith in a low-scoring affair.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1
Brentford vs West Ham, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Thomas Frank has masterminded the art of beating West Ham.
In four Premier League meetings, Brentford have won all of them with the Hammers only managing one goal in those fixtures. Frank’s ability to nullify the strengths on the counter-attack and at set pieces of a David Moyes team is clear to see. In those four matches the Hammers created a per 90 average of just 0.85 worth of expected goals with that figure dropping to a miserly 0.26 per 90 in the two clashes at the Gtech Community Stadium.
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With Moyes not known for throwing many tactical curve balls into his set up, I’d expect his West Ham side to fall into Frank’s trap once again, especially with confidence high within the home ranks after wins over Burnley and Chelsea.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Burnley vs Crystal Palace, Saturday 3pm
The soft underbelly within the ranks at Burnley is likely to be targeted by the wily Roy Hodgson, who is having to resort to back-to-basics football to get results without the creative flair of Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise. You can rest assured that Palace won’t be giving much away and taking advantage of set piece situations, just like Everton did during Wednesday night’s routine victory over Burnley where James Tarkowski and Amadou Onana both scored.
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This should mean plenty of opportunities for Marc Guehi to venture forward and the 6/5 with Sky Bet for him to have at least one shot stands out. The England defender has managed four attempts at goal in his last three appearances.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1
Everton vs Brighton, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
It may never actually land but the 66/1 with Sky Bet about Lewis Dunk scoring outside the penalty area is just too juicy not to bring to your attention.
His development at Brighton, first under Graham Potter and then Roberto De Zerbi has been remarkable – to the extent that he’s even now taking attacking free-kicks for his club in the style of Cristiano Ronaldo. It’s quite a spectacle.
His latest one against Fulham from 25 yards had Bernd Leno scrambling all ends up before clipping the top of the crossbar. That was his third attempt in his last four games from dead balls and such is the quality he’s producing from them, he’s likely to remain pulling rank from such situations.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Manchester City vs Bournemouth, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
If aggregate scores are your thing, then you must try and find a way to back a pro-Manchester City angle for this encounter although their heavily odds-on win price of 1/12 with Sky Bet makes that a very challenging task.
City have won their last 21 home games in all competitions by an aggregate score of 67-10. They have also won all 12 of their Premier League games against Bournemouth, the best 100 per cent record any team has against another in English top-flight history with that aggregate score coming out as 38-7.
Image: Manchester City's Erling Haaland celebrates his goal
On this basis they are working at an average of three goals per game, so my tame attempt to try and conjure up a solid City play is to present the 5/6 with Sky Bet on offer for Manchester City to win and over 3.5 goals in the match. I did try.
SCORE PREDICTION: 4-1
Sheffield United vs Wolves, Saturday 3pm
Gary O’Neil is an intelligent chap – he admits it himself. It’s such traits that managed him to form a successful career as a professional footballer and judging by his appearance on Monday Night Football, it’s his brain power that is the backdrop of why he’s managed to land a job of this magnitude despite his inexperience. O’Neil will have to use all his problem-solving skills to replace Pedro Neto’s influence in the coming weeks.
He is central to everything O’Neil’s team do in the final third. That’s why the sight of him leaving the field in tears having suffered what looked a serious hamstring injury against Newcastle has the potential to derail Wolves’ season although there is optimism that the injury is just a six-week job.
Neto is their out-ball. The one that springs Wolves into their deadly transitions where Hee-chan Hwang alongside Wolves forward Matheus Cunha has transformed Wolves into arguably the best counter-attacking team in the league. I’m worried for them in the final third without him even against the worst team in the Premier League. The under 2.5 goal line here at 10/11 with Sky Bet is where I’d be plotting a bet.
The Blades sit bottom of all the key attacking metric tables provided by Opta, including goals scored (7), expected goals (7.56) and big chances created (5). It’s hard to see where the goals are coming from across both teams.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-0
Newcastle vs Arsenal, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
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This is a fixture where the temperature gauge is developing from ‘lemon and herb’ to ‘extra hot’.
Both meetings last season between these two fiery teams that like to play on the edge had significant beef with 54 fouls committed and 12 yellow cards shown across the two fixtures. With the outright market hard to call, the fouls markets are where my punting instincts have been drawn to under the floodlights at what should be a raucous atmosphere at the cathedral of football. Just the raw numbers in terms of fouls committed make the 27 or more fouls to be awarded rate as an exciting option to follow with 11/4 with Sky Bet readily available.
Also, Dan Burn is bound to have trouble containing Bukayo Saka in one-on-one situations.
The full-back has been dribbled past 16 times this season – the only defender to have been dribbled past more is Pedro Porro. With Burn’s position coming under threat down that flank, like last weekend where he made four fouls vs Wolves, Burn could be in aggressive mood and that makes him a play in the fouls market. It’s 4/1 with Sky Bet for him to repeat the feat of the corresponding fixture last season where he made three fouls when faced with stopping Saka.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
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To be able to back a team to avoid defeat at Evens that possess a home record of losing just twice in 19 Premier League matches is almost an automatic bet such is the strength of those numbers. The big stumbling block is the opposition, of course. Aston Villa have taken 65 points in 32 Premier League games in 2023 – only Manchester City have won more.
They will be popular at 4/5 with Sky Bet for the away win but the likes of Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City have all failed to leave the City Ground with three points – and the return of Taiwo Awoniyi is a huge boost for Steve Cooper’s side. The striker has nine goals and three assists in his last 14 league appearances and Forest’s win rate catapults from 25 per cent to 55 per cent with him starting in games at the City Ground. He can make the difference.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Luton vs Liverpool, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
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Luton’s corner lines at Kenilworth Road remain overflowing with value. Keep backing them.
Rob Edwards knows his team must play for set pieces by getting the ball into opposition territory fast to create situations to win corners down the flanks or free-kicks by playing at a high tempo. At home, their corner count has been traditionally very healthy, averaging 7.4 corners per game at Kenilworth Road last season – a tally only bettered by West Brom in the Championship.
The step up to the Premier League hasn’t affected their output yet as they’ve won 31 corners across their four games against Wolves, West Ham, Burnley and Tottenham, winning seven or more in three of those games. Therefore, the 11/10 on offer for them to win four or more corners is rather juicy with five or more (9/4) and six or more (9/2) also worth noting as slices of value.
Liverpool still haven’t returned to their watertight best and that is seen through the number of corners they are offering up to the opposition. Allowing 45 corners against in their last seven matches equating to 6.4 per match, adding further weight behind Luton being able to land at least four corners at that odds-against price.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3
Tottenham vs Chelsea, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
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I’m with Tottenham here – with quite a bit of confidence too with the 11/10 with Sky Bet on offer.
Chelsea had been receiving some plaudits for their recent performances and whilst their midfield three is a threesome to be feared, problems persist in turning chances into goals. There is no hiding away from the data that shows they have underperformed their expected goals return by 19 goals in 2023, missing 57 big chances along the way which in all makes their conversion rate of 7.08 per cent the worst of any Premier League side. Yes, that’s including Luton, Everton and Sheffield United. They’ve also failed to score in 14 Premier League games in 2023 – the most of any team.
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When you factor all those attacking woes in and compare it to the ruthlessness, confidence and gusto on show in the Tottenham attacking line, it makes the 11/10 for Tottenham to score more goals than Chelsea (in other words win the football match) look rather generous.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-0
Sourse: skysports.com
