October began with a fairly stable situation on the foreign exchange market, which has become a distinctive feature for the market. Most likely, this situation will continue until October 19, with the only surprise that may come from the euro exchange rate.
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This forecast was given to “FACTS” by Taras Lesovy, director of the financial markets and investment department of Globus Bank . According to him, in mid-October the situation on the foreign exchange market will remain predictable and relatively stable, and the main regulator of processes, as before, will be the National Bank of Ukraine.
The NBU will monitor the balance of supply and demand, intervening if necessary through currency interventions, and it is also expected that during the week the NBU's currency sales will not exceed $800 million. For a country with sufficient international reserves, this is a completely comfortable indicator and does not pose a risk to the market.
According to the banker, the value of the dollar, as the main foreign currency in Ukraine, is unlikely to experience significant fluctuations. The euro has a more “complex” dynamics, since its rate depends not only on the ratio of the hryvnia to the dollar, but also on global fluctuations in the euro/dollar pair. This indicator is influenced by both political decisions in the world and the actions of large investors, who from time to time redistribute their assets based on risks.
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“Despite these factors, the dollar on world markets is expected to remain within the corridor of $1.15-$1.18 per euro. For Ukraine, this means relative stability of the euro exchange rate, which should not exceed UAH 49,” emphasized the interlocutor of “FACTS.”
As for the dollar, its exchange rate corridor from October 13 to 19 will be from UAH 41.25 to UAH 41.65, and the exchange rate may fluctuate within 40−60 kopecks during the week.
Note that until the end of this week, currency rates in Ukraine will generally remain stable.
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