By mid-September, the dollar exchange rate in Ukraine is forecast to be approximately UAH 41.6, but by September 21, the American currency may fall in price by 10 kopecks. This is the forecast given by a banker, according to whom three factors will influence this.
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According to Taras Lesovy, Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Department of Globus Bank , the foreign exchange market will remain active in the second half of September, but significant exchange rate fluctuations should not be expected. There are several key reasons for this.
Among the main factors influencing the foreign exchange market, the expert named:
- stabilization of the economic situation: inflation is slowing down, the main sectors of the economy are demonstrating development, which supports the hryvnia and reduces the risks of an imbalance between demand and supply.
- A managed flexibility regime is in place, under which the National Bank can quickly respond to changes in the situation through currency interventions. Most likely, the volume of such operations over the next week will not exceed $800 million – this is the optimal volume of market support.
- The global dynamics of the dollar/euro pair, although it remains variable, does not signal any sharp jumps in either direction. Quotations are unlikely to go beyond 1.15−1.2, and in Ukraine, rates will reflect the global trend.
Also, according to the interlocutor of “FACTS”, additional factors will remain influencing the situation, but a surge in demand for currency is not predicted, since the NBU is successfully “parrying” it.
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– Thus, from September 15 to 21, the foreign exchange market will likely operate in its usual rhythm: existing trends will persist, the hryvnia will continue to be supported by economic development and growing public confidence, which reduces spontaneous demand for foreign currency, – the expert summarizes.
In general, by September 21, Taras Lesovy predicts a rate of 41.15−41.5 UAH for the dollar and 47.5−49 UAH for the euro on the cash foreign exchange market.
Previously, “FACTS” wrote about what ways there are to increase your funds, besides bank deposits.
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