Fast breaks have been the one area of frailty that has led to almost 20 per cent of the goals Manchester City have conceded – a higher percentage than any other side in the Premier League; watch Man City vs Manchester United on Super Sunday from 3pm; kick-off 3.30pm
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A look at all the numbers you need to know ahead of the Manchester derby
Erling Haaland continues to write his name into the annals of Manchester City history. With the help of his pass-master Kevin De Bruyne, the Norwegian this week took his goal tally in all competitions to 27 for the season.
It came less than four weeks after the 23-year-old’s return to the side following nearly two months out with a foot injury, and took his total since joining City in the summer of 2022 to 79 in 83 appearances.
Pep Guardiola kept his goalscoring juggernaut on for longer than necessary as Luton let in six in midweek, but the Catalan knows stiffer challenges lie ahead, where an exhibition in finishing must be coupled with more robust defending.
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Guardiola knows his side could still fall short of the double Treble. On Sunday, when Manchester United visit the Etihad Stadium – live on Sky Sports – the latest twist in an engrossing Premier League title race could hinge on the cutting out of counter-attacks.
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How can Manchester United stop Erling Haaland in the derby on Sunday with the striker in red-hot form having scored five goals against Luton in the FA Cup
Guardiola knows that failure to address an area of weakness could ultimately undo his metronomic machine. Fast breaks have been the one area of frailty that has led to almost 20 per cent of the goals City have conceded – a higher percentage than any other side in the Premier League.
It is the first time since Guardiola’s first season in 2016/17 that over 10 per cent of their goals conceded have come from situations when their opponents break quickly.
In six seasons from 2017/18 to 2022/23, only 11 of City’s 176 Premier League goals conceded were from fast breaks – just over six per cent.
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The Football Show panel dissect John Stones’ importance to Manchester City and how his periods of absence have impacted Pep Guardiola’s team defensively this season What is a fast break?
A fast break is defined by Opta as an attempt created after the defensive team quickly turns defence into attack, after winning the ball in their own half. Put simply: a counter-attack.
On Sunday, Manchester United will put the theory that City are vulnerable to fast breaks to the test once more.
Erik ten Hag’s side have often struggled when faced with a low block, but the Etihad pitch and City’s dominance of the ball should allow Marcus Rashford, Alejandro Garnacho and others to play more vertically.
Guardiola is fully aware of the logic behind the view that another home victory is far from a foregone conclusion, and Ten Hag will reflect on several examples this term that have demonstrated how City’s defence has been left exposed.
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Example One: Heung-Min Son goal
During the 3-3 draw with Tottenham in early December, there was further evidence of how City are vulnerable from their own attacking set-piece.
John Stones showcased last weekend in the 1-0 win at Bournemouth just how important he is to City’s build-up, sliding into midfield to create an overload, but the defender was absent when Ange Postecoglou’s side came to Eastlands.
Stripped of a player with those dual-role capabilities, Spurs were able to pick off their opponents on quick transitions. From defending a corner, Bryan Gil sparked a swift counter-attack which led to Heung-Min Son’s opening goal.
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FREE TO WATCH: Highlights from the Premier League clash between Manchester City and Tottenham
Example Two: Hee-Chan Hwang chance
Across 25 league matches, 11 opponents have drawn first blood. It has been a recurring theme, as has City’s ability to respond. Only Liverpool (22) have collected more points from losing positions than City’s 18 – and Ten Hag will have planned to capitalise on such a susceptibility.
City’s autumn stutter saw them lose three of four consecutive away games which featured Newcastle, Wolves and Arsenal emerging victorious despite being dominated on the ball.
Hee-Chan Hwang had a good chance in the first half during Wolves’ 2-1 victory at Molineux in September, but City would not heed the warning and the South Korean would ultimately score the winning goal.
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Wolves head coach Gary O’Neil breaks down how his side managed a 2-1 win over City
Example Three: Alexander Isak goal
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Highlights from the Premier League as Newcastle took on Manchester City
City have already conceded more goals from fast breaks this season than in any of the previous seven under Guardiola. Micah Richards believes it is an area City must address ahead of the Manchester derby.
“City like to commit bodies forward and it’s on the transition where Kyle Walker always seems to be left alone,” he told Sky Sports. “Sometimes he is caught in between whether to hold his position or to go.
“Walker relies so much on his pace to get him out of trouble. It was the same against Newcastle when City had a lot of men caught forward and they were all drawn to one side of the pitch [for Alexander Isak’s goal].
“If you’re looking for a chink in the armour, this is it.”
Example Four: Frank Onyeka chance
Image: Central space allows Brentford to play direct
Image: Yoane Wissa has time to seek Frank Onyeka's deep run
Image: Man City's high line allows Onyeka to run in behind
Image: Onyeka telegraphs his shot as Ederson saves
Brentford, like Everton recently at the Etihad, played a very low block with the game plan of frustrating their opponents and seeking opportunities on the counter-attack.
Everton were let down by the final ball on occasions during rare quick transitions in the opening period, while Brentford had more joy in getting into shooting positions but they lacked a clinical touch.
Frank Onyeka ought to have scored, and it will alarm Guardiola that the reverse fixture at Old Trafford brought City’s only clean sheet against a side outside the bottom seven since the end of August.
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FREE TO WATCH: Highlights from the Premier League clash between Manchester City and Brentford
Example Five: Raheem Sterling goal
Image: Nicolas Jackson holds it up well to spin onto Cole Palmer's pass
Image: All 10 City outfield players are in Chelsea's half
Image: Kyle Walker (deepest City player) is already caught between marking Raheem Sterling and engaging with Jackson
Image: Walker is unable to halt his momentum as Sterling cuts inside to score
A fortnight ago, when City dropped points for the first time since mid-December, Chelsea became the eighth side in 13 games to score the first goal against Guardiola’s men. His pursuit of perfection has always seemed to have one glaring blind spot.
Raheem Sterling’s composed finish came as a result of a fast break.
“Chelsea scored once, but they looked like they could get another one,” Jamie Carragher said.
“Guardiola has always spoken about the importance of short passes, and the reason he does is because if you lose the ball, you have somewhere there immediately to stop the counter-attack.
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FREE TO WATCH: Highlights from the Premier League clash between Manchester City and Chelsea
“Whether he’s been at Barcelona, Bayern Munich or Man City, his teams if they are going to concede a goal it will more likely than not come on the counter-attack.”
Only Crystal Palace – with seven – have conceded more goals this season from a fast break than City, who have shipped five alongside Man Utd and Newcastle from such situations.
“Typically, City are going to have possession and dominate the opposition and it means you have to be clinical in those moments,” Daniel Sturridge added.
“Chelsea only took one of those chances. City often allow these chances, and it’s a case of whether they can get away with it.”
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City’s history of rattling off victories has conditioned observers to believe another winning streak has begun, but Guardiola will be cautious as his side enters a pivotal month.
His side look more defensively vulnerable than in previous campaigns. Having let in 26 goals in 26 games, they are conceding close to their highest rate under Guardiola, almost on par with the 2016/17 campaign, when they finished third.
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Furthermore, of the seven teams they have faced twice in the Premier League, five are in the bottom eight, while none are in the top seven. Such a backloaded fixture list should ward off any notion of complacency, but the blueprint to beating City should be better executed by sides closer to the summit.
Only five players have had more shots following fast breaks than Rashford in the Premier League this season; Ten Hag will have encouraged him and others to be ruthless, in the same way Sterling was, if City are left exposed on the transition once more.
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Gary Neville has previously labelled this United group “the odd bunch”, capable of going from the sublime to the ridiculous. Rasmus Hojlund’s continued absence means Rashford is likely to feature more centrally, leaving Antony to play on the right and Garnacho moved over to the left, where he has been less effective.
Speaking in his latest podcast, Neville said: “The result against Fulham was a bad one but they’re still daft enough to go and hunt down Aston Villa and Tottenham for a Champions League place.”
Ten Hag is under scrutiny following Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s 27.7 per cent buy-in. Having kept alive hopes of silverware with victory over Nottingham Forest, Casemiro’s late winner could in time prove to be the Dutchman’s Mark Robins moment.
Back that up with a tactical masterclass this weekend, and no one will be accused of any bias.
Watch Man City vs Man Utd on Super Sunday
Man City vs Man Utd is live on Super Sunday on Sky Sports Premier League from 3pm; kick-off 3.30pm.
Sky Sports customers can watch in-game clips in the live match blog on the Sky Sports website and app. Highlights will also be published on the Sky Sports digital platforms and the Sky Sports Football YouTube channel shortly after the final whistle.
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