Ukraine needs at least $30 billion every year to finance its expenses and support the dollar exchange rate, and these funds are quite enough to keep the Ukrainian currency stable. Thus, experts predict the beginning of autumn as stable, without any significant changes.
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This forecast was given to “FACTS” by Taras Lesovy, director of the financial markets and investment department of Globus Bank . According to him, the beginning of autumn will not bring significant changes to the foreign exchange market – from September 1 to 7, the dynamics of exchange rates will remain within the August trends: the dollar will remain below the mark of 42 UAH, and the euro will maintain fluctuations in the range of 48−49 UAH.
The situation looks quite stable — agricultural companies continue to sell surplus currency, supporting supply on the market, and the National Bank is ready to respond promptly to possible surges in demand. An additional factor of calm is the decrease in inflationary pressure: if in May the annual inflation was 15.9%, then in July it was already 14.1%. According to preliminary estimates, in August the indicator could decrease to 13.5% (official data have not yet been published — Author ).
– Exchange rate fluctuations will remain insignificant and multidirectional. As in the last few months, the difference between cash and non-cash rates will be minimal. The dynamics will be influenced by macroeconomic indicators and the strategy of the National Bank, as well as events on the world stage, which may affect the euro exchange rate. At the same time, there are no prerequisites for sharp and unpredictable jumps yet, – the expert noted.
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So, in the first week of September, two key trends of the summer will remain: the stability of the dollar and the more volatile exchange rate of the euro, sensitive to changes in world markets. As for specific figures, the dollar will fluctuate from 41.6 to 42 hryvnias, and the euro from 48 to 49.5 hryvnias, and on the day of the fluctuation they are unlikely to exceed 30 kopecks in either direction.
Therefore, exchange rates will remain at the level of the end of summer, as already reported by “FACTY”.
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