According to representatives of the banking sector, the beginning of autumn will not bring significant changes to the foreign exchange market; exchange rate dynamics will remain within the August trends: the dollar will remain below UAH 42, and the euro will continue to fluctuate in the range of UAH 48−49.
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Economist Danylo Monin agrees with this point of view in a comment for Noviny.LIVE.
The strengthening of the hryvnia, in his opinion, is explained by the NBU's practice of containing inflationary processes through exchange rate policy.
“This is happening to the detriment of economic development, with a trade deficit of $24.5 billion for the first half of the year and its own deficit forecast of $52.2 billion, or 25% of GDP. The NBU continues to keep the exchange rate at a relatively low level, trying to minimize inflation rates,” the expert believes.
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Also, according to Mr. Monin, a shortage of currency is not expected due to the record amount of assistance that Ukraine will receive from partners in 2025. This allows the hryvnia to strengthen and keep the exchange rate at 41.3−42 UAH throughout September 2025.
The European currency, whose exchange rate forms the ratio in the dollar-euro currency pair, will also remain at approximately the current level, Monin believes.
Another trend is that in the last month of summer, the dollar began to slowly strengthen against the euro. The exchange rate has now moved from 1.18 to 1.16−1.17. But the processes are slow, so the hryvnia to euro exchange rate will most likely remain in the range of 48−49 UAH in September.
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Let us recall that, according to the head of the Rada's finance committee, Danylo Hetmantsev, the civil sector of our state is fully financed by soft loans from international partners. These funds cover social payments, business support, maintenance of the state apparatus, and salaries.
