The global relief rally after the 90-day suspension of US tariffs has not fully reached the złoty market. Thursday morning brought a significant weakening of the Polish currency in relation to the euro.
On Thursday at 10:11 the euro rate was PLN 4.2610 and was 3.3 groszy higher than the day before. This is therefore a strong counter to Wednesday's decline, when the price of the euro expressed in Polish złoty fell by almost 4 groszy.
The reason for such high volatility on the zloty market was of course new reports from the fronts of the tariff wars. On Wednesday afternoon, the financial world was shaken by another tariff U-turn by President Trump, who, under the influence of rising Treasuries yields, decided to suspend the introduction of prohibitive tariffs on goods imported to the US for 90 days. The Wall Street stock exchanges reacted euphorically, the dollar lost against the euro, and the zloty strengthened against the common currency.
Advertisement See alsoWe recommend: up to PLN 300 bonuses for a new account at Bank Pekao, with a multi-currency card
Asian stock exchanges rose strongly overnight. The session in Europe also began with huge increases, with the main indices gaining 6-8% in the morning. On our GPW, WIG20 rose by over 5%, and the tone for the increases was set by bank shares, whose shareholders are preparing for a deterioration in results due to the expected interest rate cuts in the Monetary Policy Council.
According to PKO BP analysts, although fears of a recession in the US have eased somewhat following D. Trump's announcement of a break in mutual tariffs, a further escalation of the tariff war with China, the US's main trading partner, may slow down the scale of the recovery in global risky assets by the end of the week.
The Euro-Dollar deadlock remains unresolved. The EUR/USD exchange rate has been moving in a wide range of 1.08-1.12 for a week with very high daily volatility of quotes. However, there is still no definitive confirmation of a change in the trend to growth, which would be a breakout of the resistance zone above 1.12 USD.
Paradoxically, the dollar-zloty pair is much calmer, with April's turbulences in the range of PLN 3.76-3.94. On Thursday morning, the dollar was valued at PLN 3.8625 – similar to the previous day. On the dollar-zloty pair, breaking through the level of PLN 3.80 may be key, which would open the way for further depreciation of the American currency.
On the other hand, a very strong rebound was noticeable on the franc-zloty pair. In the morning, the franc rate rose by as much as 6.5 groszy, reaching the level of PLN 4.5594. This is the opposite of Wednesday's downward movement, which lowered the Helvetian currency from PLN 4.6376 to PLN 4.4825. A daily amplitude of as much as 15 groszy on this “cross” is a rare case, indicating the instability of the currency market.
KK
