There are four midweek Premier League games for our tipster Jones Knows to feast on and he’s backing Burnley to win the seismic clash with Watford on Tuesday.
Burnley vs Watford, Tuesday 7.30pm – Watch free highlights of this game after full time
Burnley are usually very hard to beat in these ‘six-pointer’ scenarios. In the last three seasons in 29 games against teams that finished that campaign in the bottom five, Burnley have lost just three of those games, winning 16 at a healthy strike rate of 55 per cent. Two of those defeats can be excused, too, as a 4-2 reverse at Fulham came early in the season and the 1-0 loss at Sheffield United at the end of last season was very much a dead rubber. When it matters, Burnley can be relied upon to deliver in a relegation scrap.
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This is why it’s hard to fancy an away win, even though Claudio Ranieri’s men did look a little more secure with the addition of their new signings in their well-deserved 1-1 draw with Newcastle. They remain without a clean sheet this season though.
That experience and know-how in the Burnley dressing room in such an important one-off game does make the 23/20 with Sky Bet for a home win quite appealing.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
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BETTING ANGLE: Burnley to win (23/20 with Sky Bet)
Brighton vs Chelsea, Tuesday 8pm – Watch free highlights of this game after full time
Backing a positive Brighton-based bet when Graham Potter’s men play one of the elite teams is a staple of my betting diet. Although their record in the traditional match results markets is pretty ropey, hence why I’m happy to side with Chelsea, you can always rely on them to outperform their lines when it comes to various other markets due to their forward-thinking, possession-based style that does afford them a huge amount of territory even against the Champions League sides.
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For this encounter, my eyes have wandered to the corners market where the 11/4 with Sky Bet for Brighton to win the most corners is begging to be backed.
When looking at their corner data at the Amex Stadium in 2011, Brighton have averaged 6.43 corners per 90 minutes and concede an average of 3.95 per 90 minutes. This includes winning the corner race against Arsenal, Tottenham and in both of their home fixtures with Manchester City.
Thomas Tuchel’s team are missing the influence of Ben Chilwell and Reece James down both flanks and just like they did in the reverse fixture at Stamford Bridge, Brighton will surely be trying to get Tariq Lamptey and Marc Cucurella into the spaces down the channels to force corner winning situations.
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SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
BETTING ANGLE: Brighton to have more corners than Chelsea (11/4 with Sky Bet)
Any weekend winners for Jones Knows?
- Dam Burn to have a header on target 7/1
- Southampton five or more corners 11/8
- Under 2.5 goals in Man City vs Chelsea 11/10
Leicester vs Tottenham, Wednesday 7.30pm – Watch free highlights of this game after full time
Leicester’s attack is purring, and I’m keen on giving them plenty of my faith in the second half of the season, starting in this game where the 2/1 with Sky Bet for a home win is worth following. The Foxes have scored 27 goals in their last 11 games across competitions and that has included fixtures against Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea.
Antonio Conte has made Tottenham a tougher nut to crack but organisation levels have been hit by the absence of Eric Dier, who looks to be an important player for Conte playing at the heart of the defence. Leicester have selection issues in defence but have the quality and current form in their frontline to create big chances against the north Londoners.
Few players are in better form right now than James Maddison and his chances of scoring are worth adding into the home win bet. Playing in his favoured role off the front, he has scored in four of his last five appearances.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
BETTING ANGLE: Leicester to win and James Maddison to score (11/2 with Sky Bet)
Brentford vs Manchester United, Wednesday 8pm – Watch free highlights of this game after full time
This is a tough period for Brentford, who are perhaps slipping towards the level many expected them to be performing at when assessing their pre-season chances. Thomas Frank’s side have lost nine of their last 14 Premier League games having lost just one of their first seven. And, judging by what Manchester United produced for the majority of their 2-2 draw with Aston Villa, an away win looks the way to play this one at 4/5 with Sky Bet.
For those wanting to boost that price into an odds-against one, taking Manchester United to be winning at half-time and full time at 7/4 looks an interesting play. Brentford have an unfortunate habit of making slow starts and have conceded a Premier League high 21 goals in the first half of games this season, including seven in the opening 15 minutes of games.
We have yet to see the true Ralf Rangnick style of football at United but there has been an urgency to start games on the front-foot – as seen by them scoring inside nine minutes in three of their last four fixtures.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2
BETTING ANGLE: Manchester United to be winning at half time and full time (7/4 with Sky Bet)
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