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Our tipster Jones Knows takes aim at the Premier League action, unleashing his predictions and betting angles across an exciting weekend.
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Liverpool vs Everton, Saturday 12.30pm
Everton’s non-penalty expected goals return is higher than Liverpool’s this season – and Manchester City’s.
The quality of chances they have created has equated to 14.92 worth of non-penalty expected goals – it’s the third highest in the Premier League. So, despite this being an obviously difficult task on paper – Everton have not won in the last 25 visits to Anfield in front of fans since a 1-0 win in 1999 – we can be confident of them posing an attacking threat.
My eyes are drawn to James Garner across his shots and goal output.
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Everton manager Sean Dyche is adamant that his side’s record against Liverpool needs changing ahead of their Merseyside derby clash this weekend.
The Everton midfielder is playing with great confidence and freedom in an attack-minded role for Sean Dyche, which has seen his attacking numbers spike. Garner scored for the second time in three matches in the win over Bournemouth and kept up his serious love for shooting by registering four efforts in the match. That’s now 16 shots in his last seven starts with his two or more shots line landing in six of those matches.
The 11/1 with Sky Bet on him scoring is a fantastic price.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: James Garner to score (11/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Image: James Garner celebrates after scoring against Aston Villa – he is 11/1 to score at Anfield
Bournemouth vs Wolves, Saturday 3pm
This game sets up perfectly for Wolves and the returning Gary O’Neil.
As my colleague Dan Sansom writes in his excellent breakdown of Andoni Iraola’s start to life at Bournemouth, despite showing all the right signs of being a pressing team, Bournemouth have had the most passes completed between the lines against them this season, which suggests their press isn’t working as effectively as it should. It looks to me like the squad lack the required aggression and intensity without the ball to implement the ideals of the forward-thinking Spaniard.
Wolves like to defend in numbers and spring into life with Pedro Neto and Matheus Cunha when the opposition’s shape becomes fragmented. O’Neill’s side rate as an interesting proposition at Evens in the draw-no-bet market.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1
Brentford vs Burnley, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
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Head coach Vincent Kompany reflects on dealing with the pressure of keeping Burnley in the Premier League.
Like always, set-pieces could be their route to the opening goal for Brentford. Since they were promoted, and excluding penalties, Brentford rank second for expected goals from set-pieces (38.1) and third for goals scored (36) in the Premier League.
It’s a huge part of their armoury and they’ll be asking Burnley so many questions from such situations.
- Over a quarter of a million players are predicting a 2-1 scoreline in the favour of Brentford.
Vincent Kompany’s side are progressing with each fixture at this level but they remain a team lacking in so much presence when defending set-plays and have conceded three goals already via that method with Jonny Evans also having one ruled out in Manchester United’s win a few weeks back.
The price that stands out to me is the 14/1 with Sky Bet on Christian Norgaard scoring a header. The Danish midfielder is an underrated attacking threat in the way Brentford construct their attacks, especially from set-pieces. He’s had five headed shots already this season, scoring with a flicked effort in the draw at Nottingham Forest.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Manchester City vs Brighton, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Is this the perfect time to play Manchester City? Or are Brighton about to walk into a thunderous reaction from Pep Guardiola’s side? It’s a question to steer clear of from a betting perspective, despite Brighton at 11/2 with Sky Bet for the away win.
- Over 930,000 players backing Man City to beat Brighton this weekend.
In their last 24 matches across all competitions against Man City, Man Utd, Liverpool, Chelsea, Newcastle, Tottenham and Arsenal, Brighton have won 13 of those fixtures, winning the aggregate score 43-31. To average almost two goals per game in these fixtures is phenomenal, therefore the total Brighton goals line is my desired angle here.
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Roberto De Zerbi’s attack have scored in their last 17 games away from home in the Premier League, totalling 35 goals. They won’t be changing their risk-reward style up against Guardiola, so the 2/1 for them to score two or more goals is likely to give you a great run in what could be a fantastic spectacle.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-3
Newcastle vs Crystal Palace, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Where are the Crystal Palace goals coming from? Even Roy Hodgson sounded worried after they drew a blank against Nottingham Forest. And when a manager of his experience and know-how gives you a tip, it’s wise to listen. It revolves around Palace’s increasing injury list, particularly the issues with Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise, who both could still be out for six weeks. Hodgson said after Palace’s limp 0-0 attacking showing vs Forest: “The two we want back from injury are Olise and Eze – I can’t look at matters with the same degree of optimism until those two get back fit, but it’ll take some time.”
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Eze, as gifted a footballer as you could ever imagine, had started every Premier League game under Hodgson until the weekend. And Palace’s record without Eze since the start of last season does put some substance to Hodgson’s fears. In nine matches where he hasn’t started, Palace remain winless, scoring just five times in those matches. It’s hard to see where their creativity is coming from.
It could be a grind, but one goal probably will do the job for Eddie Howe’s team. A Toon win to nil at 11/8 with Sky Bet it is.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
Nottingham Forest vs Luton, Saturday 3pm
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Nottingham Forest head coach Steve Cooper says his side tries not to make comparisons with previous seasons despite a significant improvement of their goal difference at the same stage this season.
Morgan Gibbs-White is a serious talent and he’s going to explode into life at some point this season in a big way. This could be that moment against a defence like Luton’s who struggle in one-on-one situations against skilful opposition.
Having been dropped for Nottingham Forest’s 1-1 draw with Brentford, Gibbs-White returned to the side looking fully focused and motivated in the draw at Crystal Palace, playing a slightly different position off the right which suits his style. He almost lobbed home an exquisite opening goal but was denied by the post.
Also, with Brennan Johnson now departed, Gibbs-White will surely be grabbing the ball at any penalty-taking opportunities having scored his last two spot-kicks for the club. The 7/1 with Sky Bet for him to score first looks very tasty and I’ll be playing that along with the 20/1 for him scoring twice and the 125/1 to secure a hat-trick.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BETS: Morgan Gibbs-White to score first (7/1), to score twice (20/1) & to score a hat-trick (125/1)
Chelsea vs Arsenal, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Image: Chelsea vs Arsenal, live on Sky Sports
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The axis of Gabriel and William Saliba could just take Arsenal all the way this season.
Of the most used centre-back partnerships in the Premier League who have played regularly together since the start of last season, this pair have the best win percentage, points per game, most clean sheets and fewest shots faced per game.
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That’s from a huge 32-game sample size, too. When Saliba was ruled out for the run-in last season, Arsenal allowed Manchester City to chase down their five-point lead.
- Nearly 700,000 Super 6 players are backing Arsenal to back up their win over Manchester City by claiming three points at Stamford Bridge.
Arsenal, now with Declan Rice added to the mix, are an absolutely savage defensive outfit. They are the only team in England’s top four divisions yet to concede a league away goal this season. It’s easy to see that run continuing up against a very flaky Chelsea attack that can’t be trusted to take chances on a regular basis yet. Arsenal to win and under 2.5 goals at 4/1 with Sky Bet does have the stench of a winning selection.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1
Sheffield United vs Manchester United, Saturday 8pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Image: Sheffield United vs Manchester United, live on Sky Sports
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Rasmus Hojlund hasn’t got going in the Premier League in front of goal. Despite scoring three goals in two Champions League appearances he’s not scored in any of five Premier League appearances, missing four big chances along the way. However, he’s a player with plenty of presence and super movement in the box and this might be the time to catch him.
Sheffield United are a very welcoming team to opposition strikers to the extent that nine of their 22 Premier League goals conceded have come from crosses with Odsonne Edouard, Chris Wood, Taiwo Awoniyi, Erling Haaland, Callum Wilson, Richarlison, Jarrod Bowen and Bobby Decordova-Reid all scoring via that method in a central area.
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The 4/1 with Sky Bet on Hojlund scoring first doesn’t get my punting juices flowing enough so it’s greedy guts time by backing him to score a header at 17/2 to get a bigger price. The Blades have already conceded seven headed goals this campaign.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2
Aston Villa vs West Ham, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Image: Aston Villa vs West Ham, live on Sky Sports
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Aston Villa’s recent record against the Hammers is rather bizarre. Villa haven’t beat them home or away in the last 10 Premier League meetings, leading in those matches for just 10 minutes. Of course, Unai Emery’s side are going for 11 home Premier League wins on the bounce in this one – a run that has seen them concede just four goals. There probably is a regression coming with West Ham, too, who are overperforming on their expected goals metric at both ends of the pitch, having conceded 4.6 goals fewer than their expected goals against while only Aston Villa, Brighton and Tottenham have overperformed by more in attack.
This is decidedly difficult – and it’s made my brain hurt. And when a game hurts my brain, play the draw which is trading around the 3/1 mark.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Tottenham vs Fulham, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Image: Spurs vs Fulham, live on Sky Sports
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There will be bumps in the road for Tottenham and Ange Postecoglou – but it’s hard to see how Fulham can cause them too many problems considering their timid attacking numbers. I wouldn’t put anyone off having a proper swing at Tottenham at a short price considering the lack of goalscoring threat in the opposition ranks but a way to boost a home win to a meatier play is to add Dejan Kulusevski to score which gets us to 7/2 with Sky Bet.
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Kulusevski is a master of playing as a winger in the modern day. Aggressive and disciplined without the ball yet so dangerous and silky with it. When he’s at the top of his game, he is a menace to stop. He leads the way in the Premier League for most chances created from open play (21) and has the second most touches in the opposition box (76), showing just how much of the ball he is seeing in this Postecoglou revolution. The goals should follow, starting here.
SCORE PREDICTION: 4-0
Sourse: skysports.com
