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Our tipster Jones Knows takes aim at the weekend action across the Premier League and FA Cup, offering up his insight and betting analysis.
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Wolves vs Coventry, FA Cup quarter-final, Saturday 12.15pm
Backing both teams to score looks a great starting point for what should be a cracking cup tie. Coventry have scored in each of their last 13 away games in all competitions whilst 71 per cent of Wolves’ home games this season have seen both teams score.
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Since the FA scrapped replays in the fifth round and quarter-finals for the 2019/20 season there have been just seven draws in 56 fifth-round or quarter-final matches – that’s just a 12.5 per cent strike rate. I think the withdrawal of replays is making teams go all-out for the win with the thought of extra-time a bit of a hindrance. That’s enough to put me off the draw for this encounter and there is a bet to be had to combine goals and no draw.
Sky Bet do offer a special market where we can back both teams to score and the game not to end in a draw, which is coming out at 13/8 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Burnley vs Brentford, Premier League, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £750,000!
The market continues to get the goal line all wrong in these battles down at the bottom.
There is a clear trend developing that these type of games between relegation rivals are producing more attacking intent than what the expected models are telling the bookmakers.
Of the 28 games involving both Sheffield United, Luton, Burnley, Nottingham Forest, Crystal Palace, Everton and Brentford this season, the overall goal average has been 3.03 per game – usually that is above the market expectation of edgy and cagey affairs. And 39 per cent of those 27 games have seen four or more goals scored.
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In a game Brentford simply have to try and win, it should result in a goal-heavy encounter, especially when you consider their recent defensive record which is spiralling out of control. It’s now just one clean sheet in their last 18 Premier League games. Burnley can get in on the act here, so both teams to score and over 2.5 goals looks a lovely bet to attack at Evens with Sky Bet.
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SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Luton vs Nottingham Forest, Premier League, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £750,000!
Big game.
At half-time during Luton’s clash with Bournemouth, I was ready to side with them at 6/4 with Sky Bet to beat Nottingham Forest. At full-time, I didn’t want to be anywhere near that price following their collapse.
Results like that can have a huge effect on confidence and general belief so even though I think they’re still the most likely winners, I can swerve them and play the draw.
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FREE TO WATCH: Highlights from the Premier League clash between Bournemouth and Luton
Luton will cause problems from set pieces. Forest have conceded the most goals from set-pieces (18) in the Premier League this season – that’s four more than any other team. And 10 of those have come since Nuno Espirito Santo took the job in December, so he’s had no impact on improving the standards.
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We need to look at the Luton centre-backs in the goalscorer markets and I’ve come down on Reece Burke, who has had eight shots in last six games. One might be due and the 40/1 first goalscorer prices with Sky Bet are certainly worth a second look.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Fulham vs Tottenham, Premier League, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £750,000!
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For all Tottenham’s swashbuckling attacking in the second half vs Aston Villa, they are becoming slow starters in matches. They had just one shot in the first half at Villa Park and failed to score, meaning they’ve failed to score in five of their last six first halves. And only had 25 shots in those six first halves, works out at just over four per game which is very low for a team chasing Europe.
Now they are heading to a tricky away game to play a Fulham team that have conceded the fewest goals in the opening 15 minutes of matches this season, just one.
I like the Evens available with Sky Bet on the second half to have more goals than the first. This means even if there’s a first-half goal, the bet is still live as we just need the second half to outscore the first – it’s a bit more of an enjoyable punting experience than just backing under first-half goals as that bet can be over within a few minutes.
In 278 Premier League games this season, there’s been 369 first-half goals and 531 second-half goals – so 162 more goals in the second half. That is leading to this bet of more second-half goals landing more frequently than what the market is suggesting with 52 per cent of games this season seeing this bet win, including in eight of Tottenham’s last 11 games across all competitions. They can power away again in the second half.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3
Manchester City vs Newcastle, FA Cup quarter-final, Saturday 5.30pm – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £750,000!
Newcastle’s season might just be over come Saturday evening. It doesn’t get much tougher than this.
Upsets are rarely seen at this stage of the competition in the FA Cup. In the last 26 games involving Manchester City, Manchester United, Arsenal, Liverpool or Chelsea in the fifth round or quarter-finals, those teams have won 24 of those 26 games in 90 minutes. And those two defeats both were inflicted by Leicester who were a top-five club at the time and won the trophy in 2021.
Manchester City to win in 90 minutes is the obvious starting point for a bet even at 2/9 with Sky Bet. This is a team that have won each of last 12 FA Cup games at home, scoring 52 goals and lost just one of their last 58 home matches in all competitions.
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Heading to the cards market may provide a slice of value though as the 25/1 about no cards being shown in the first player to be carded market looks good to me.
In the last 56 FA Cup fifth-round and quarter-final matches, since replays were scrapped, the average yellow card count per match is just 2.07 – that’s just 116 yellow cards in 56 matches. These types of one-sided games can be played out in a friendly environment and the referee can be a little more lenient than usual. There were no cards in Man City’s fifth-round fixture at Luton and this one could go the same way.
SCORE PREDICTION: 4-0
Chelsea vs Leicester, FA Cup quarter-final, Sunday 12.45pm
Chelsea’s attack is purring right now. They are in trustworthy mood. In their last eight Premier League games, Chelsea have scored 2.1 goals per game, overperforming their expected goals by about 0.47 per game, which is a complete flip to the period between August and January where they regularly underperformed their xG in front of goal. It’s starting to click for Maurico Pochettino and they could be in line to make another major cup final.
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FREE TO WATCH: Highlights from the Premier League clash between Chelsea and Newcastle
Leicester head here in a strange spot – is this a game they really need? They are wobbling slightly in the Championship, winning just one of their last five and conceding two goals in four of those matches. Ipswich and Leeds are hunting them down, so I’m not sure this is a helpful game for them. Chelsea to win and over 3.5 goals at 2/1 with Sky Bet rates as a decent wager.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1
Aston Villa vs West Ham, Premier League, Sunday 2pm – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £750,000!
Ollie Watkins remains a player of interest in the goalscorer markets against teams outside the “big six” – it was no surprise he drew a blank vs Tottenham last week as his record against elite opposition is now just six goals in 17 appearances.
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All of Ollie Watkins’ Premier League goals and assists so far this season
However, he is a killer when it comes to scoring against non “big six” teams where his record of 23 goals in 35 games under Unai Emery is fantastic. That works out at a goal every 132 minutes and he is a massive runner to find the net in this one at the odds we can play at. I’d advise a close look at both the 5/1 with Sky Bet on him scoring first and the 6/4 on offer for him to score anytime.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Manchester United vs Liverpool, FA Cup quarter-final, Sunday 3.30pm – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £750,000!
Regular readers will know all about the sustainable edge we’ve been exploiting this season regarding Manchester United’s ability to ship corners. The market still hasn’t noticed, which is great news here where the Liverpool corner line is very backable.
United’s 10-game Premier League average of corners conceded now stands at 8.3 per 90 minutes after Everton surpassed the market’s expected line and won eight at Old Trafford on Saturday.
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But that corner-conceded average rises to a completely bonkers 11.5 corners conceded in the last seven games against the top five in the Premier League.
They shipped 10 away at Villa, 13 at home to Spurs, six at home to Villa, 12 away at Liverpool, 12 at home to Man City, 12 at Arsenal and a staggering 15 in the recent league game with Man City – 12 coming in the first half.
United do have a tendency under Erik ten Hag to stay in matches despite giving up so much territory and possession, so I can see Liverpool racking up plenty of corners as they hunt a way through. Jurgen Klopp’s men are averaging 6.9 corners per 90 this season, and have won seven or more corners in 25 of their 44 matches, so a 55 per cent strike. When you factor in the opposition and their woeful corners against record averages, getting 5/4 with Sky Bet on Liverpool winning seven or more corners is a real gift.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Sourse: skysports.com
