Carabao Cup Predictions: Chelsea to win final on penalties

Watch free Premier League highlights across Sky Sports’ digital platforms; watch Wolves vs Sheffield United. Chelsea vs Liverpool in the Carabao Cup final & West Ham vs Brentford live on Sky Sports

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After landing his best bet 10/1 treble – making it back-to-back wins – our tipster Jones Knows is red hot and back to unleash his insight and betting advice.

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Wolves vs Sheffield United, Sunday 1.30pm, live on Sky Sports

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Sheffield United’s style of play doesn’t lend itself to fouls being drawn. Over their past six Premier League games, they are averaging just 6.3 fouls won per 90 – by far the lowest average in the Premier League during that time. From that collection of fouls only eight yellow cards have been drawn – again, a league low.

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Brighton made five fouls last weekend and somehow got four bookings as Stuart Attwell was in a very fussy mood after the red card for Mason Holgate. In this game where Sheffield United must frustrate and relinquish possession – a scenario Wolves have struggled with this season against Brentford, Nottingham Forest and this reverse fixture which the Blades won – there will be ample opportunities for the visitors to keep referee Darren Bond busy.

Heading to the Bet Builder looks the way forward as combining Sheffield United to win the most booking points with the Blades with a -2 handicap makes sense at 6/4 with Sky Bet.


Chelsea vs Liverpool, Carabao Cup final, Sunday 3pm, live on Sky Sports

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I’m looking to combine two angles in the Sunday showpiece, although they are very contradictory.

They consist of foreseeing a tight and cagey game played out at a stadium that rarely is conducive to goal-frenzy matches and Liverpool goalkeeper Caoimhin Kelleher not to keep a clean sheet.

Playing at Wembley tends to sap the momentum out of a game – maybe the jeopardy of a cup final plays a part – which in turn leads to low-scoring football matches. In the last 30 domestic matches played at Wembley the average total goals per 90 stands at a miserly 1.93. Only three of those games have gone above the 3.5 goals line, too.

When you have low scoring games, the draw becomes a strong runner. It’s the 1-1 correct score that stands out at 6/1 with Sky Bet as Chelsea are fancied to get on the scoresheet. Whatever Jurgen Klopp says, Kelleher is a downgrade on Alisson and he’s kept just two clean sheets in his last 16 starts. Meanwhile, six of the last 16 League Cup finals have gone to extra-time – this could add to that trend with Chelsea winning on penalties at 11/1 worth a tickle.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 (Chelsea to win on penalties)

West Ham vs Brentford, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports

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It looks likely that David Moyes and West Ham will part ways at the end of the season, and with a mid-table finish likely, is there a chance players might struggle to remain fully motivated despite their best intentions?

It might only be a two or three per cent drop-off but at the elite level of sport, that marginal gain for the opposition is massive. That, added to West Ham’s already flagging overall performance level, is why I’ll be fading them at every opportunity whilst Moyes remains in charge. It will be all about the Europa League now.

Brentford do need Premier League points and are fancied to win this clash at 7/4 with Sky Bet which would make it six wins from six against the Hammers in the Premier League.

I can leave that 7/4 alone though and focus on the 15/8 with Sky Bet for Christian Norgaard to have two or more shots.

West Ham have shipped an alarming amount of shots from set pieces (110 – sixth worst) and outside the box this season (150 – no team have conceded more) and Norgaard has a strong record in both of those attacking metrics.

He’s averaging a per 90 average of 0.46 shots from outside the box and 0.50 shots per 90 following corners. This threat from set-plays and habit of taking up a Rodri-like position just outside the area where shooting opportunities drop his way make him a huge runner here to fire at least two shots, something he did in the reverse fixture.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Christian Norgaard to have two or more shots (15/8 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

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