US President Donald Trump is allowing a “land transfer” between Russia and Ukraine to break through the talks, despite Kyiv's categorical refusal. The Kremlin promises to “not refuse” Trump in exchange for easing sanctions against Russia, while retaining control over the escalation. Forbes Ukraine selected the main points from the Reuters analysis
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Talks between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will begin on August 15 at 10:00 p.m. Kyiv time. The meeting will take place in Alaska at a Cold War-era air base. These are their first face-to-face offline talks since Trump returned to the White House.
The main goal of the meeting is to try to achieve a ceasefire in Ukraine, although the chances of success remain uncertain, Reuters writes. The meeting of the US and Russian presidents comes amid fears in Ukraine and Europe that Trump could betray Kyiv.
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Details
Trump's position. Taking office US President Trump promised to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours, but later admitted that the conflict turned out to be more difficult than he expected.
Trump said that if talks with Putin go well, the next trilateral summit with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will be “even more important than the meeting with Putin,” Reuters reports.
The US president is pushing for a ceasefire to bolster his credibility as a global peacemaker worthy of the Nobel Peace Prize, something he has made clear is important to him.
The Trump administration is considering a package of economic offers for Putin that could include access to Alaska's natural resources, rare earth deposits in occupied Ukrainian territories and partial lifting of sanctions on the Russian aviation industry, The Telegraph reported. The aim is to encourage the Kremlin to agree to end the war in Ukraine.
Putin's position: Putin, whose military economy is showing signs of strain, needs Trump's help to get Russia out of tough Western sanctions, or at least to keep Trump from imposing new sanctions on Moscow, as he has previously threatened, Reuters writes.
Ahead of the summit, Putin sweetened his offer to Trump with a new nuclear arms control treaty. The current agreement between the United States and Russia expires in February 2026, the last since the Soviet era. This could help both leaders save face, Reuters notes.
The Kremlin's conditions for a complete ceasefire in Ukraine:
- Complete Russian control over Donbas (Donetsk and Luhansk regions).
- Full control over the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions.
- Refusal of Ukraine's membership in NATO.
- Limit the size of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Context
Ukraine and European fears. There were concerns that Trump might “sell out” Kyiv in a deal with Putin. However, a phone call on Wednesday between Trump, Zelensky, and European leaders partially allayed those fears.
Ukraine and its European allies were encouraged by their conference call on Wednesday, during which, they said, Trump agreed that Ukraine should be included in any negotiations on the cession of territories, Reuters writes.
Meanwhile Russia controls almost a fifth of Ukraine's territory. About 25% of Donetsk region is still outside Russian control. Both sides accuse each other of violating previous agreements.
Sam Green, director of democratic sustainability at the Center for European Policy Analysis, warned of potential manipulation by the Kremlin. “If the Russians can offer an agreement that creates some form of ceasefire but leaves Russia in control of the escalation dynamics… that would be a great outcome from Putin’s perspective,” he explains.
A source close to the Kremlin told Reuters: “Obviously, some conditions will be agreed at the presidents’ meeting because Trump cannot be refused, and we are not in a position to refuse (due to the pressure of sanctions).”
Analysts suggest that Putin may try to pretend to give Trump what he wants while remaining free to escalate in Ukraine if he wishes.
Possible scenarios
Compromise scenario: A phased truce in the air war is possible instead of a complete ceasefire.
Territorial issue. Trump suggested that a land transfer between Russia and Ukraine could be a way to resolve the stalemate, which Kyiv categorically rejects.
Strategic goals: Putin, who has been in power in Russia for a quarter of a century, has put his legacy on the line, seeking to end the war with what he can present to the Russians as a victory.
Uncertainty of outcome. Trump has been “hot and cold” about the chances of a breakthrough in peace talks with Russia, while Putin has praised the US’s “sincere efforts” to end the war.
Ukraine called the Kremlin's conditions unacceptable and equivalent to a demand for surrender.
Materials on the topic
Category World Date August 12 “Trump will not leave empty-handed.” What will the US President and Putin agree on in Alaska? Forbes Ukraine asked analysts from the US, EU and Ukraine to evaluate four scenarios
Category World Date August 11 A diplomatic victory for Russia and a negotiation trap for Ukraine. Why is it beneficial for Putin to meet Trump in Alaska? Analysis by FT and Politico
Category World Date August 08 First without Zelensky . What will be the first big meeting between Putin and Trump in seven years? Analysis by Reuters and NYT
