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According to Russian propaganda, the Oreshnik variant with a “kinetic” warhead has enormous destructive power and hits buried objects with “tungsten rods,” but an inspection of the third place where these blocks fell tells a completely different story.
Main theses:
- Ukrainian experts confirmed the absence of significant consequences from the Oreshnik missile strike, debunking the myth about its destructive power.
- The size of the craters in the ground indicates the actual impact energy that led to their formation, approximately in the range of 220-400 MJ, equivalent to an explosion of 52-95 kg in TNT equivalent.
Russia spreads myth about Oreshnik's destructive power — experts refute
Experts are already actively investigating the site of the fall of the blocks of the medium-range ballistic missile “Oreshnik” over Bila Tserkva on the night of May 24, but they have allowed us to debunk another myth of the racists regarding this weapon.
Because after the third use of the Oreshnik missile system without any significant consequences, even Russian citizens began to doubt the Kremlin's propaganda about the “similarity” of this weapon. Against this background, Russian propagandists again spread the thesis that the Oreshnik carries special tungsten kinetic warheads. And they supposedly have super-high penetration, due to which, they say, some “secret underground shelters” are hit, and therefore almost nothing is visible on the surface.
At the same time, Defense Express learned from its own sources the size of the craters left by the Oreshnik blocks in ordinary soil. A general inspection showed that their average dimensions are approximately: up to 3 meters in diameter and up to 2 meters deep.
Due to the collision energy, the blocks themselves no longer physically exist due to the extremely small fragmentation with partial evaporation due to the collision energy. This does not allow us to answer the question of whether these are really so-called “rods” or the bodies of mass-dimensional mock-ups of charges.
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In any case, the overall size and depth of the craters, as well as the consequences of the damage to the garages, correspond to what was investigated in Dnipro and Lviv. That is, we are not talking about any new warhead either.
The size of the craters allows us to roughly estimate the energy of the impact that caused their formation. Exact mathematical calculations and modeling will be performed later, but we are talking about an approximate range of 220-400 MJ.
Such collision energy is approximately equivalent to an explosion of 52-95 kg in TNT equivalent. But this is a rather conditional comparison, due to the absolutely different nature of the energy release during a kinetic impact and a chemical explosion. Also, the explosion of even a high-explosive warhead somehow produces primary and secondary fragments, which are almost absent in a kinetic impact.
Russia used an Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) against the Kyiv region, with the impact area identified near Bila Tserkva.
Footage also appears to show the missile's post-boost separation phase, with multiple reentry vehicles descending toward the target… pic.twitter.com/NkUxI5TP7P
— OSINTWarfare (@OSINTWarfare) May 23, 2026
But in general, this makes it possible to assess the consequences of such a strike, which contains 36 blocks and is conditionally equivalent to a strike of 36 “Shahedas” with a reinforced warhead. Although the nature of the damage in both cases is fundamentally different, because the warhead of the “Shaheda” has a high-explosive and fragmentation effect.
At the same time, the difference is that in 2026, Russia plans to assemble five Oreshnik missile systems per year at a rate of one missile per 2-2.5 months. But the enemy needs approximately 8 hours to produce 36 Shaheds.