California gubernatorial hopeful, Rep. Eric Swalwell is seen at a town gathering in Sacramento, Calif., April 7, 2026.Rich Pedroncelli/AP
Rep. Eric Swalwell’s departure and President Donald Trump’s backing of Republican Steve Hilton has shaken California’s race for governor, perhaps alleviating the state’s congested Democratic field predicament and permitting a leading candidate to surface.
Swalwell, who halted his campaign on Sunday and stated Monday he would resign from Congress following accusations of sexual assault and improper behavior which he has vehemently denied, may offer an opening for other Democrats contending for the position to unify backing and advance.
Swalwell initially garnered support from key labor factions and influential figures within California’s congressional representation and elected officials in Sacramento.
California gubernatorial hopeful, Rep. Eric Swalwell is seen at a town gathering in Sacramento, Calif., April 7, 2026.Rich Pedroncelli/AP
“Labor [groups] will gravitate to [Tom] Steyer. It aligns with their principles, allowing them to dedicate funds to other contests,” stated Steven Maviglio, a Democratic political planner based in Sacramento and former press secretary to past California Gov. Gray Davis.
“As the sole female candidate among the top contenders, Porter may possess greater credibility when addressing this controversy than a male politician,” suggested Dan Schnur, a professor of political science at UC Berkeley and University of Southern California. “However, another possibility, potentially [Matt] Mahan and perhaps [Antonio] Villaraigosa, might seize this opportunity to gain ground and become more competitive.”
In recent weeks, certain Democrats voiced growing worries that their large roster of 10 principal candidates could fragment the vote, possibly enabling Hilton and Bianco to secure the top two positions and exclude Democrats from the general election in a state that has not chosen a Republican governor for almost two decades.
While the chance of a Democrat shutout was always comparatively small, California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks composed an open letter on March 3, urging candidates from his party who lack a feasible route to success to withdraw before the filing deadline.
In a declaration to ABC News after allegations against Swalwell emerged, Hicks stated, “Finally, my plea for all — repeat, all — candidates for Governor to “sincerely evaluate the practicality of their candidacy and campaign” remains in effect. Indeed, this plea holds even greater significance now than ever before.”
But following Trump’s endorsement, the urgency for Democrats to begin withdrawing has decreased.
“At this moment, whether there are two Democratic candidates or eight or 80, it’s not particularly relevant, as Trump’s backing will elevate Hilton at Bianco’s expense,” Schnur commented.
“All this hand-wringing about no Democrats making the final cut — I believe we can dismiss that notion now,” Maviglio remarked.
California gubernatorial contender Steve Hilton walks to the podium to deliver remarks during a forum at the California Republican Party Convention in San Diego, April 11, 2026.Jae C. Hong/AP
Trump’s Support of Hilton
Under California’s top-two primary approach, the possibility of two Republicans progressing to November has depended on Hilton, a former Fox News personality, and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco remaining closely ranked in surveys. Nevertheless, Trump’s support could translate to amplified backing for Hilton, potentially sourced from those who previously favored Bianco. Should Hilton gain traction while Bianco’s support remains stable or wanes, a Democrat might surpass Bianco and secure the second position in the general election, according to strategists.
Notably, the California Republican Party recently refrained from officially endorsing Steve Hilton, with a greater number of party delegates supporting Bianco over Hilton, though neither achieved the 60% benchmark required to secure the endorsement.
“The 60% threshold is demanding, and those delegates lean more towards traditional conservative ideologies than MAGA voters,” Maviglio observed.
“Hilton possesses the means to capitalize on Trump’s endorsement, potentially giving him enough momentum to secure a top-two finish, or come close,” he added.
The outcome did not startle some strategists, who informed ABC News prior to the party’s annual convention that a politically astute strategy for Republicans would involve withholding an endorsement, thereby maximizing the chances for their candidates to advance as far as possible.
The “gift that continues to give”
Rob Stutzman, a Republican consultant who served as deputy chief of staff for communications to former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, indicated that Trump’s endorsement of Hilton isn’t the only occasion where his actions have unintentionally aided Democrats politically.
“He’s a continuous boon for the Democrats out here,” Stutzman commented. “The ICE raids in LA presented Gavin Newsom with an opportunity to elevate his national profile … the mid-decade redistricting has been a debacle for California Republicans, and Speaker [Mike] Johnson and the White House did little to assist in opposing Prop 50 out here. Trump persists in being a significant liability for Republicans in California.”
President Donald Trump speaks with reporters outside the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, April 13, 2026.Alex Brandon/AP
Democratic San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, who is also campaigning, criticized Trump’s support of Hilton in a post on X, providing another illustration of Democrats positioning themselves as the alternative to Trump, according to Maviglio.
“By endorsing Steve Hilton, Trump is explicitly showing Californians what a Hilton governorship would entail: increased expenses, a devastated economy, and a Sacramento that fulfills Trump’s wishes, paves the way for ICE, and targets our communities rather than safeguarding them,” Mahan penned.
“I’m campaigning to achieve the opposite: to decrease expenses, invest in California’s future, and resist Washington when it attacks us,” Mahan continued. “The choice couldn’t be more transparent.”
Similarities to previous contests
In the 2024 U.S. Senate race, then-Rep. Adam Schiff and his allies allocated millions to promote Republican candidate Steve Garvey, ultimately assisting Schiff in surpassing fellow Democratic Rep. Katie Porter to secure a spot in the top two.
However, Maviglio emphasized that the current Democrats contending for governor are not an “established frontrunner” like Schiff.
Organizations endorsing Democratic candidates, including major labor coalitions, also possess the capability to undertake analogous independent expenditures and could strategically invest to sway which Republican candidate consolidates support.
“While we lack an Adam Schiff figure, we now have the CTA, the California Teachers Association, the SEIU. These organizations possess ample resources to publicize Hilton’s endorsement by Trump to Republican voters,” stated Jon Fleischman, a Republican political strategist and former executive director of the Republican Party of California.
“In approximately four weeks, should polling data indicate that Republicans continue to occupy the top two positions, the likelihood increases that unions or Tom Steyer would finance endeavors aimed at elevating one of the Republicans, which, at this point, would evidently be Hilton,” Stutzman projected.
California gubernatorial candidate Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco walks toward the podium to speak at the California Republican Party Convention in San Diego, April 11, 2026.Jae C. Hong/AP
How have Republican candidates responded?
Hilton reacted to the notion that Trump’s backing could aid Democrats.
“These California Democrats have become a complete farce. Their primary is in utter disarray, their candidates are embroiled in scandal and corruption, and, above all, their track record is one of absolute, catastrophic failure,” Hilton expressed in a statement. . … Naturally, they solely desire to endlessly discuss Trump, as they lack any alternative discourse. No evolution, no novel concepts, no aspirations for Californians.”
In a message on X, Bianco also addressed the news of Trump’s support, affirming, “this contest is centered on California’s future, irrespective of any single endorsement.
“For an extended period, politicians and insiders from Sacramento to Washington have endeavored to predetermine our leaders for us,” Bianco stated. “That constitutes not leadership, but rather a coronation, which is precisely how we’ve ended up with the unsuccessful leadership that Californians are experiencing today.”
Bianco elaborated, “To be frank, I have consistently asserted that a Fox News host, soliciting a president’s endorsement, will never prevail in California. For me, this pursuit has never been about being the leading Republican. I have pledged to serve as a governor for every Californian.”
Sourse: abcnews.go.com