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Jones Knows takes aim at the football feast across the weekend in the Premier League and the FA Cup, sprinkling his betting insight and analysis across the card.
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Luton vs Brentford, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Luton are hanging on in there. We’re on them to stay up at 3/1 from earlier this season which is now an 11/8 shot, so the bet is technically in a good spot – especially when you look at their run-in.
After this fixture, which I think they’ll win at 21/10 with Sky Bet, it’s Wolves (a), Everton (h), West Ham (a) and Fulham (h) on the final day. It’s a kind run of fixtures that does leave a regressing and confidence-sapped Everton very vulnerable – you can get 9/2 for the Toffees to get relegated which looks a price that will shorten between now and the end of the campaign.
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Issa Kabore is likely to come back into the Luton side for this clash after being ineligible for the defeat at Manchester City and he’s worth backing to get fouled at least twice in the game at 5/4 with Sky Bet based on his recent fouls won data. He’s won 17 fouls in his last seven starts, to an average of 2.4 per 90 minutes with his tricky style and canny ability to go down under, let’s say, minimal contact, leading to referees awarding fouls in his direction.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Any winners for Jones Knows last week?
- Ross Barkley to score for Luton (8/1)
- Luton to score at Man City (Evs)
- Bournemouth 20+ shots vs Man Utd (5/4)
- Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals in Burnley vs Brighton (5/4)
- Best Bet: Isak to score vs Spurs (5/4)
- Forest to draw with Wolves (5/2)
- Correct score: Burnley 1-1 Brighton
- Newcastle draw-no-bet vs Spurs (6/4)
Sheffield United vs Burnley, Saturday 3pm
The Premier League goal rush has made the total goal markets go a little bonkers this season with some very high goal expectancy lines for games involving two goal-heavy teams. Yet, there are also times where the overall average can affect a market too much, like this one, where under goals simply has to be the play for a game involving the two worst attacks in the Premier League.
My confidence is returning backing an under goal line after finding a couple of winners in recent weeks with Burnley vs Bournemouth and Burnley vs Brighton both copping returns at odds-against prices. Good prices are lurking. And that’s the case here.
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Sheffield United have averaged 0.94 goals scored per game this season – the worst in the league – while Burnley have averaged exactly one goal per this season – the joint-second worst in the league.
Under 2.5 goals is priced up as the outsider of the over/under line with 6/5 with Sky Bet on offer which looks very appealing in what could descend into a proper dud of a game.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
The dynamic pair started at Anfield for the first time together since Crystal Palace’s 3-2 win over Sheffield United in January and Palace looked a completely different beast, looking so much more confident in possession and creating plenty of fruitful attacking moments.
Since the start of last season, in the 28 Premier League games where Eze and Olise have both started, Palace have a win percentage of 46 per cent and average 1.4 goals per 90 minutes. Contrast that to the 42 games without at least one of them starting those numbers drop dramatically to a win percentage of 14 per cent and 0.9 goals scored per 90 minutes.
With the shrewd addition of the very exciting Adam Wharton, this Palace team – with Eze and Olise fit and firing – look capable of positing some impressive attacking returns under Oliver Glasner in their remaining fixtures and I’ll be backing them when the prices are right – which they are here.
West Ham are 14 games without a clean sheet in the Premier League and their overall defensive metrics since the turn of the year are horrendous. They’ve conceded the third most goals of any team in those 14 games (28) and their expected goals against per 90 figure is 2.14 which is the second worst of any team for that period, behind only Luton.
Palace scoring two or more goals is odds against at 10/11 with Sky Bet, which has to be one of the best prices of the weekend.
SCORE PREDICTION: 4-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Crystal Palace to score two or more goals (10/11 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Coventry vs Manchester United, Sunday 3.30pm, FA Cup semi-final – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Coventry will be hoping to channel the legacy of Keith Houchin and his diving header from the 1987 FA Cup final win over Tottenham. One of my favourite FA Cup final goals that one.
This is a fascinating semi-final as Manchester United could just be there for the taking although giant-killings are rarely seen once we get to this stage.
United’s extra quality in the final third is likely to win them this game, not their style of play that continues to baffle. Are they trying to play a low block and also be a pressing team? It’s weird.
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Speaking on his podcast, Gary Neville believes that Erik ten Hag’s Manchester United future will depend on whether they are successful in the FA Cup.
And they’re going to allow Coventry to venture towards their goal at regular intervals. Like many teams against United, it will be the shots and corner count that will take a hammering rather than their goals against column.
The United corners conceded numbers remains out of control, shipping 119 in their last 12 Premier League games – again, the most of any Premier League team in that period. An average of 9.9 per game.
With the Coventry line only set at five or more corners here at 5/6 with Sky Bet, it simply must be attacked. The Sky Blues have won the second most corners in the Sky Bet Championship this season, so their style of play does tend to force them. Going on previous form, even the higher Coventry corners lines 10 or more at 16/1 and 12 or more at 33/1 might be runners at big prices.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Fulham vs Liverpool, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
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Since Rodrigo Muniz came into the Fulham team in January, Fulham have become one of the most dangerous attacking forces in the Premier League. Muniz’s eight goals has certainly been the catalyst for their improved numbers but as a team their whole process is functioning beautifully at the moment.
Over the last 12 Premier League games, only Liverpool and Man City are averaging more shots per game (17) and only Liverpool, Man City and Arsenal average more shots from inside the box per game (12.3). In that time they’ve beaten Bournemouth, Man Utd, Brighton, Tottenham and West Ham – and should have made their dominance pay in the first half against Newcastle – a game they somehow went onto lose. This all equates to impressive form.
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So, with Liverpool’s midfield looking on the brink of malfunctioning and their strikers misfiring, Fulham look a backable prospect at 6/4 with Sky Bet to avoid defeat and 9/2 outright for victory.
Willian to score at 11/2 jumps out, too.
Surprisingly, he hasn’t scored since netting in the Carabao Cup semi-final first leg between these two at Anfield but after a spell of injuries, he looked his sparky self in the win at West Ham. He’s the likely Fulham penalty taker too which is always a bonus to have on your side when backing anytime goalscorers. The Brazilian can fire in a home win – something which can be backed at 12/1 using the BuildABet with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
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