1:59Citizens participate in advance voting at a voting location in the Manhattan area of New York as part of the early voting period for the upcoming mayoral contest, on October 27, 2025.Charly Triballeau/AFP via Getty Images
Your Voice Your VoteABC News
During a period of intense polarization and partisan divide, the proportion of undecided voters may seem to be diminishing, but several pollsters who conferred with ABC News pinpointed demographics that could still sway the critical 2026 midterm elections.
Hispanic voters
President Donald Trump achieved considerable progress among Hispanic voters in 2024, notably with promises pertaining to the economy. Currently, with escalating inflation and soaring costs, pollsters suggested the economy is the very subject that could attract these voters back.
Christine Matthews, a pollster for previous Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan and former Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, informed ABC News that young Hispanic males will be "extremely vital" in 2026 — a demographic Trump secured last year by 10 points — as they embody "significant economic cost-of-living voters."
People take part in early voting at a polling center in the Manhattan borough of New York during early voting for the upcoming mayoral election, on October 27, 2025.Charly Triballeau/AFP via Getty Images
Trump garnered 48% of Latino voters in 2024 — almost an equal number of voters as Vice President Kamala Harris. The substantial Latino populations of Arizona and Nevada particularly played a major part in propelling Trump to triumph and assisting him in securing these vital swing states.
Jennifer Benz, assistant director of the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, cited immigration as an additional element that may lure Hispanic voters back to the periphery. A significant portion of their discontent arises from the immigration strategies being executed, she conveyed, even if voters are in accordance with the president's perspectives at a broader level.
Black voters
While Black voters largely remain Democratic, their backing for Trump nearly increased twofold in 2024. Black voters were plausibly swayed by the economy as well, according to Ashley Konig, director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University.
However, Trump's economic assurances seem to be insufficient, with the Black unemployment rate rising to 7.5% this year, its highest level since October 2021.
A group of students pause to pose for a photo in the Student Center before heading to the law school during NCCU’s get-out-the-vote march.DeAndres Royal/North Carolina Central University via Getty Images
Matthews noted a "considerable [shift] among younger Black men" toward Trump in 2024 — a demographic that has been gradually departing from the Democratic party since 2020. The manner in which the economy unfolds over the ensuing year is apt to shape their voting choices, she articulated, akin to young Hispanic men.
Marcus James, a 43-year-old from Alabama, informed ABC News that he "completely regret[s]" voting for Trump in 2016, referencing his identity as a Black man and denouncing the administration for their handling of minorities.
"The major question moving into 2026 is, will those same advances that [Trump] accomplished in '24 persist? Or will Democrats be capable of reclaiming their near-total support among Black voters and their majority backing among Hispanic voters?" Konig stated.
Non-voters
Certain voters might sway in the direction of abstaining from voting altogether, with Lake highlighting a segment of reliably blue voters who remained inactive in 2024 due to dissatisfaction with both political organizations.
"They're tired of voting for the lesser of two evils," Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster who contributed to former President Joe Biden's 2020 campaign, communicated to ABC News. "They harbor strong anti-Trump sentiments. Conversely, they desire to perceive a more viable alternative from the Democrats."
Young people walk past a sign pointing to a vote center during the in-person early voting period in California’s Proposition 50 special election on October 27, 2025 in West Hollywood, California.Mario Tama/Getty Images
Lovette Howard, a former Democrat who voted for Harris in 2024, communicated to ABC News that she remains undecided in 2025 because she contends that both parties are not "attentive to what the taxpayers are expressing," indicating apprehensions concerning the economy and suspensions of SNAP benefits, among other factors.
Certain among these unenthusiastic voters are even contemplating third-party ballots, with James conveying to ABC News that he voted for Independent contenders in the preceding two presidential contests and will likely replicate the action in 2026.
And absent Trump at the pinnacle of the ticket, assembling voters to the ballot boxes is projected to pose a challenge for the GOP as well. Indeed, the Republican State Leadership Committee recognized itself as "the party of low-propensity voters," initiating programs to counteract midterm decline.
'Weighted vest women
After noticing women in her locality donning weighted vests, Matthews conducted a national survey wherein she ascertained that such vests were commonplace among educated, affluent, suburban white women possessing children.
Intriguingly, Matthews discovered that these women were precisely politically divided.
"This is a demographic of voters who report in '24 that — merely by a slight margin — that they had somewhat been inclined towards Trump, but now they're split on the generic ballot," Matthews told ABC, designating them "weighted vest women."
People take part in early voting at a polling center in the Manhattan borough of New York City on October 25, 2025.View Press/Corbis via Getty Images
Given that these women are "prolific consumers" of politics and news, Matthews anticipates them to constitute a "high-turnout cohort in an off-year election."
They fall within the broader demographic of suburban white women, a constituency with mixed political convictions and geographically situated between urban and rural territories, she clarified.
Young voters
While youth turnout is conventionally low during midterms, Lake emphasizes that they comprise an "increasingly substantial proportion of the electorate" and consequently a "very pivotal swing group."
"Young individuals are gravitating back rather dramatically towards the Democrats," she expressed, before spotlighting the widening gender and education chasm.
Bill Galston, senior fellow of Governance Studies at the Brookings Institute, elucidated how youth discontent could incite a Democratic "protest vote," whereas the assassination of conservative influencer Charlie Kirk — who is credited with igniting young conservatives — might function as a GOP "rallying cry for voter participation."
Sourse: abcnews.go.com
