3:27In this archived photograph from Aug. 20, 2025, a legislator reviews a congressional reapportionment map during deliberations on a congressional redistricting proposal within the House Chamber at the Capitol building in Austin, Texas.Jay Janner/The Austin American-Statesman via Getty Images, FILE
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As they prepare for the approaching struggle to take control of Congress in next year’s midterm elections, Republicans and Democrats are actively working across the nation to reassess the congressional district boundaries that will influence the future of political contests.
Redistricting typically occurs just once every ten years, following the publishing of information from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Texas Republicans, at the prompting of President Donald Trump, sanctioned a revised map in August consolidating Democratic voters within significant metropolitan and suburban regions and redrawing boundaries around Democratic strongholds to incorporate more Texans who supported Trump the previous year.
In this archived photograph from Aug. 20, 2025, a legislator reviews a congressional reapportionment map during deliberations on a congressional redistricting proposal within the House Chamber at the Capitol building in Austin, Texas.Jay Janner/The Austin American-Statesman via Getty Images, FILE
This initiated a rush, culminating with Tuesday’s ballot initiative in California, which presents Democrats with a chance to equalize through newly acquired possibilities, as both political organizations investigate redrawing maps within states where they possess authority.
Republicans Secure Benefits with Updated Maps
As of Monday, four states have completed the process of redrawing their congressional districts: Texas, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio.
Ohio, in contrast to the others, had to redraw its congressional map on account of state regulations. A committee approved a “compromise” map that leans towards Republicans while still preserving competitive districts for Democrats.
Experts predict that Republicans are positioned to gain as many as nine seats via these reconstructed maps, as state legislatures modified five seats in Texas to favor Republicans, one in both North Carolina and Missouri, and two in Ohio.
Democrats place their hopes on California
However, Democrats are awaiting the chance to approve a new map in California, hoping to negate Texas’ changes.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks about the Election Rigging Response Act at a press conference at the Democracy Center, Japanese American National Museum on Aug. 14, 2025, in Los Angeles.Mario Tama/Getty Images, FILE
Voters in that state are going to the polls to vote on Proposition 50, which would implement a new congressional map that redrafts five districts to be more Democratic-leaning. Advocates of the initiative — and the ballot text itself — assert it will counteract how Texas revised its map.
Other states under observation
Several other states are presently engaged in the map-redrawing procedure.
Utah legislators recently adopted a new map after a court rejected its previous one; it is currently undergoing legal examination. Democrats are maintaining cautious optimism that a couple of these seats could potentially become more hotly contested.
Indiana’s state legislature, controlled by Republicans, is planning to commence discussions on mid-decade redistricting during a special session, while Virginia’s legislature, dominated by Democrats, is proceeding with measures that would enable it to consider a new map.
Other states leaning Republican, such as Florida, Nebraska, Louisiana, and Kansas, as well as states leaning Democratic, including Maryland and Illinois, have contemplated altering their maps.
How This Impacts the Contest for the U.S. House
The U.S. House includes 435 seats. As of Monday, Republicans possess 219 seats compared to the 213 held by Democrats, with three positions remaining open.
With every seat filled, Democrats would have to gain a net total of three seats to flip the House.
Even with both factions previously identifying potential seats for gains or flips since the 2024 House races, mid-decade redistricting compels both political parties to reassess which seats are still considered competitive and whether redistricting diminishes the extent of seats where genuine competition exists.
The U.S. Capitol rises above the U.S. Capitol Grounds, which are strewn with fall leaves, weeks into the continuing U.S. government shutdown, in Washington, October 27, 2025.Kylie Cooper/Reuters
For example, within the 2024 elections concerning the U.S. House of Representatives, 13 Democratic contenders prevailed in districts where Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump was victorious, whereas three Republican contenders prevailed in districts where Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris won, according to a study conducted by the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.
Among these districts, four — specifically Texas’ 28th and 34th, North Carolina’s 1st, and Ohio’s 9th — constitute Democratic-held districts secured by Trump, for which the updated maps have increased the Republican orientation.
This denotes that a minimum of four seats, previously considered to be within reach for both Republicans and Democrats, have been redrawn to favor Republicans significantly.
One Republican strategist involved in U.S. House races disclosed to ABC News that Texas seems to be a beneficial location for Republicans to acquire seats, and that Republicans are confident in their ability to secure the newly reconfigured seats within Missouri and North Carolina.
The National Republican Congressional Committee, the campaign division of House Republicans, stated in September that it would incorporate three Democratic-held districts in Texas onto the group’s “target list”.
However, Democrats are not conceding.
Will Van Nuys, the deputy executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the campaign division of House Democrats, reported to ABC News, “We're still very actively engaged with our frontliners, whether it's Henry Cueller, Vicente Gonzales in [Texas congressional districts] 28 and 34, whether it's Don Davis in North Carolina or our offensive target in Texas-15 — that's piece one,” he clarified.
“I believe piece two, with regard to how it will affect the general map around this time next year — is currently a little premature to claim, given that right now what you're seeing is considerable momentum shifting toward the Democratic side.”
The Supreme Court could introduce greater instability into the map
A forthcoming ruling from the U.S. Supreme Court might incite further disorder within the midterm election battle map, dependent on the timing of its release.
People walk by the Supreme Court, which is undergoing restoration, weeks into the continuing government shutdown in Washington, D.C., Octo. 20, 2025.Kylie Cooper/Reuters
The court is evaluating a legal challenge that might establish whether Louisiana, along with numerous other states, may have to reconstruct their maps in a manner blind to race. A judgment is expected by the conclusion of June 2026, marking the close of the court’s term.
Democratic-aligned organizations have estimated that legislatures controlled by Republicans could then redraw at least 19 seats held by Democrats across southern states.
ABC News’ Devin Dwyer and Benjamin Siegel contributed to this report.
Sourse: abcnews.go.com
